An age-structured model for the effects of time delay on the dynamics of malaria in the presence of temperature and rainfall

Authors

Alanus Mapunda, Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, P. O. Box 35062, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaFollow
Eunice Mureithi, Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35062, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaFollow
Nyimvua Shaban, Department of Mathematics, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35062, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.Follow

Section

Mathematics and Computational Sciences

Abstract

An age-structured model with a class of pregnant women that captures the impact of time-delay on the dynamics of malaria is established in this work. The main goal is to explore the transmission dynamics of malaria in natural setting which is comprised of pregnant women and other individuals. Some weather conditions are also considered in the model. The main importance is to investigate the evolution of various states involved in the transmission of malaria in the community. The model equilibria are analyzed to study their stability, and numerical solution of the system is presented and discussed. The result shows that time-delay (latent period) decreases with increasing temperature in range and decreasing rainfall. The result has shown that as time-delay (latent period) decreases malaria infections spread rapidly particularly among children up to five years old and pregnant women.

Recommended Citation

Mapunda, Alanus; Mureithi, Eunice; and Shaban, Nyimvua (2026) "An age-structured model for the effects of time delay on the dynamics of malaria in the presence of temperature and rainfall," Tanzania Journal of Science: Vol. 52: Iss. 1, Article 8.
Available at:https://doi.org/10.65085/2507-7961.2180