Spatio-temporal Trends and Change Detection of Surface Air Temperature in Tanzania: October to April Season.

Authors

Laban Lameck Kebacho, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences Group, Physics Department, College of Natural and Applied Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35063, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaFollow
Exavery Kisesa Makula, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences Group, Physics Department, College of Natural and Applied Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35063, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaFollow
Paul Tilwebwa Shelleph Limbu, Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences Group, Physics Department, College of Natural and Applied Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 35063, Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaFollow

Abstract

The paper examined the spatio-temporal variability and trends of minimum temperature (T-min), mean (T-mean), and maximum temperature (T-max) in Tanzania from October to April using the Climatic Research Unit Time Series version 4.06 from 1951-2021. The traditional Mann-Kendall (MK) test, modified MK, and Sen’s slope test were used to determine the trend direction and magnitude of the T-mean, T-max, and T-min trends, respectively. Sequential MK, standard normal homogeneity, and Pettitt tests were used to detect abrupt changes, while the Hurst coefficient (H) assessed future trend behavior. Results show a statistically significant increasing trend of 0.14 °C per decade, 0.18 °C per decade, and 0.16 °C per decade in T-mean, T-max, and T-min, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. The H values of T-min, T-max, and T-mean are above 0.7, indicating their future increasing trends. The change points for T-mean and T-max were in the early 1990s, and for T-min in the late 1990s. After 1991, more locations showed significant trends (positive or negative) for T-max than T-mean, and T-min had no significant trend after 1998. The 1960s had the lowest T-max and the 2010s had the highest T-min. Therefore, this study provides valuable information for immediate planning and future climate monitoring in Tanzania.

Recommended Citation

Kebacho, Laban Lameck; Makula, Exavery Kisesa; and Limbu, Paul Tilwebwa Shelleph (2024) "Spatio-temporal Trends and Change Detection of Surface Air Temperature in Tanzania: October to April Season.," Tanzania Journal of Science: Vol. 50: Iss. 5, Article 7.
Available at:https://doi.org/10.4314/tjs.v50i5.4