A Mathematical Model and Sensitivity Analysis of Lassa Fever with Relapse and Reinfection Rate

Authors

Latifat M Erinle-Ibrahim, Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Information Technology, Tai Solarin University of Education, P.M.B. 2118, Ijebu-Ode, NigeriaFollow
Olukayode Adebimpe, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, First Technical University, Ibadan, NigeriaFollow
Waheed O Lawal, Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Information Technology, Tai Solarin University of Education, P.M.B. 2118, Ijebu-Ode, NigeriaFollow
Joshua O Agbomola, Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Information Technology, Tai Solarin University of Education, P.M.B. 2118, Ijebu-Ode, NigeriaFollow

Section

Mathematics and Computational Sciences

Abstract

In this research paper, we depict an unprecedented four-dimensional ordinary differential equation modeling the dynamic transmission of the Lassa fever virus incorporating relapse and reinfection rate. Recent studies showed that the recovered individuals from Lassa fever can again be susceptible; which contradicted the common assumptions made by different researchers on modeling of Lassa fever. So, this article corrects and states the implications of the assumptions on the population density. The numerical simulations unveil the effect of relapse, reinfection, and treatment rate in the affected population. Performing sensitivity analysis suggests all new incorporated parameters can impact the infection dynamics substantially. The stability analysis was carefully estimated where expression for each compartmentalized variable was calculated at both disease-free and persistence (endemic) equilibrium. Also, the basic reproduction number of the novel model was calculated using the Next Generation Matrix. The analytical results justify that the persistence (endemic) and the disease-free equilibrium are locally and globally asymptotically stable using both Routh Hurwitz Criterion and Comparison Theorem. Keywords: Lassa fever, Reinfection rate, Relapse rate, Treatment rate, Sensitivity analysis

Recommended Citation

Erinle-Ibrahim, Latifat M; Adebimpe, Olukayode; Lawal, Waheed O; and Agbomola, Joshua O (2022) "A Mathematical Model and Sensitivity Analysis of Lassa Fever with Relapse and Reinfection Rate," Tanzania Journal of Science: Vol. 48: Iss. 2, Article 16.
Available at:https://doi.org/10.4314/tjs.v48i2.16