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Abstract

Purpose: This study compares the global competitiveness of Ugandan and Ethiopian coffee exports, analyzing export performance, market dynamics, and structural determinants to inform policy interventions.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Using quantitative analysis of 2012-2023 trade data from UN Comtrade and ITC Trade Map, we apply Constant Market Share Analysis (CMSA) and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) metrics.

Findings: Uganda demonstrated stronger growth in export value (156% from 2012–2023) and quantity (7% annual growth), driven by commodity composition effects (72.8%). However, its lower unit values ($2,578/unit) reflect reliance on bulk Robusta exports. Ethiopia, despite stagnant volume growth, commands premium prices ($5,186/unit) due to specialty Arabica varieties but faces challenges like high domestic consumption (50% of production) and infrastructure constraints. Both countries exhibit strong RCA, with Ethiopia (230.83 to 407.42) consistently outperforming Uganda (123.90 to 199.67). Ethiopia’s growth was more reliant on global demand (65% World Demand Effect), but its negative Market Distribution Effect (-11.5%) signals vulnerabilities in key markets like Germany and the USA.

Practical Implications: Uganda should focus on value addition and niche market diversification to enhance earnings from bulk Robusta exports. Ethiopia ought to balance domestic consumption with exports by boosting production efficiency and leveraging certifications like Fair Trade. Both countries need targeted policies to improve infrastructure, reduce systemic inefficiencies, and fully exploit their comparative advantages in the global coffee value chain.

Originality/Value: This study provides the first systematic comparison of Africa's top coffee exporters, offering actionable insights for policymakers to enhance sector performance.

Research Limitations: The macro-level focus omits micro-analysis of value chain actors; future research should examine climate impacts and production challenges.

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