Modelling acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in East Africa: An integrated approach to transmission dynamics and outbreak response strategies

Geofrey Wingi Sikazwe, Mkwawa University College of Education, University of Dar es Salaam, P.O. Box 2513, Iringa, TanzaniaFollow

Section

Mathematics and Computational Sciences

Abstract

Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) poses a significant global health risk, with the potential for rapid spread during outbreaks. For instance, a localized outbreak in Yunnan Province, China, recorded infection rates of up to 48%, illustrating how transmission can intensify under favourable epidemiological and environmental conditions. Existing mathematical models of AHC transmission overlook seasonal variations, a critical factor in epidemic spread. This study combines species distribution models (SDMs) and epidemiological modelling to analyse key drivers of AHC in East Africa. We use the SEIR type (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered - incorporating waning immunity) framework with temperature-dependent infectivity rate as the key driver of an epidemic in the population. Findings reveal that Temperature Annual Range (Bio07, 50.8%), Temperature Seasonality (Bio04, 37.9%), and Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter (Bio08, 11.7%) are the dominant climatic factors influencing AHC spread. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the basic reproduction number further indicates that human recruitment rate, transmission rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate significantly impact AHC epidemiology. We further demonstrate that climate variability drives the cyclical patterns of AHC outbreaks in the East African region by isolating seasonal windows where disease spread is highest. These results underscore the need to integrate climate and epidemiological modelling to better predict and control AHC outbreaks in East Africa.

Recommended Citation

Sikazwe, Geofrey Wingi (2026) "Modelling acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in East Africa: An integrated approach to transmission dynamics and outbreak response strategies," Tanzania Journal of Science: Vol. 52: Iss. 3, Article 13.
Available at:https://doi.org/10.65085/2507-7961.1074