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Abstract

In this paper various mathematical models to characterize and forecast telecommunication traffic time series traffic have been applied, and the ranges of validity of the models are determined by comparing them with measured traffic data using the measurement errors criteria method which resulted into the superior model. Based on this model the ARIMA (0,2,1) model for smoothed data, the traffic forecast findings show that by the year 2006, the traffic demand will exceed the current installed capacity of 140 Mbps in the Tanzania Telecommunications Company Limited (TTCL) network along the major link between the Dar es Salaam and Dodoma backbone route. The traffic forecast findings necessitate the migration from the current plesiochronous digital hierarchy (PDH) system to a higher capacity system so as to meet the growing needs of telecommunication services on the route. The traffic forecasting techniques are portable and can be applied by other telecommunication network operators like TTCL or by TTCL itself to other backbone links in its network.

Publisher Name

University of Dar es Salaam

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